Current Trends of Inter-year Variability of Fire Risk in Eastern Siberia, and Ice and Surface Salinity of Its Seas During the Summer Months

Abstract

AbstractOne of the reasons for the increase of fire risk in the forests of Eastern Siberia is the warming of its climate, and changes in ice conditions in the seas off its coast, linked to changes in the climate of the Arctic. The existence of meaningful linkages between these processes has not been sufficiently explored. The purpose of this article is to identify the features of the inter-annual changes in ice conditions occurring in the modern period, in the seas off the coast of Eastern Siberia, which are caused by the warming of its climate. In order to achieve this goal, the trends in the months from May to August of the year-to-year changes in the average monthly surface salinity of such seas (hereinafter SSS) are being studied as indicators of the variation in their ice cover. Information on the variability of the distribution of SSS values in the GLORYS12.v.1 reanalysis is used as a factual material. It has been established that for many regions of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea, the trends in the inter-annual variability of SSS, which are characteristic of these months, have changed in the modern period. The nature of their changes indicates the existence of a significant impact on them of the warming climate of Eastern Siberia for winter months, as well as the possibility of their influence on the risks of forest and tundra fires in its territory. Current trends in the above-mentioned processes indicate that there is a positive feedback between them, which contributes to their intensification.KeywordsArcticEastern SiberiaSeasForest firesVolume of iceSurface salinityClimate warmingTrend