Current status of the debate about the age of Lake Nyos dam (Cameroon) and its bearing on potential flood hazards

Abstract

Scientific visits to Lake Nyos in Northwestern Cameroon in the aftermath of the gas disaster that killed over 1,750 people in 1986 revealed the presence of a pyroclastic natural dam in the northern border of the lake. This dam is being affected by back erosion. Collapse of the dam could cause a flood that would affect inhabited areas over a 220 km distance. Timing of dam collapse has been hotly debated based on vastly different carbon-14 and potassium-argon formation ages. In previous work, we used uranium series disequilibria to suggest a formation age of >5,000 years. Detailed comparison of uranium series and trace element data for lavas of Lake Nyos and Mt. Cameroon, both belonging to the Cameroon Volcanic Line, suggests that Lake Nyos basalts erupted with an initial radium-226/thorium-230 ratio that is two times higher than lavas erupting on Mt. Cameroon today. This information is used to infer an age of 8,750 ± 490 years, which we suggest is the formation age of the Lake Nyos dam. The erosion rate deduced from this age does not indicate that collapse of the dam from back erosion alone and the attendant potential flood disaster are as eminent and alarming as previously thought. However, other factors militate for action to secure the dam. Work is underway to reinforce it by engineering methods.