Abstract
Background and aimAccording to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. This remains a challenge for China. This study aimed to evaluate the current status and progress towards this target in Liaoning Province, one of the three provinces in northeast China.MethodsWe calculated the premature mortality rates (PMRs) per year and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) from NCD4 using mortality data between 2004 and 2017. The trend was analyzed in the whole population, as well as in subpopulations of gender (male/female) and inhabiting area (urban/rural). PMRs from NCD4 for 2030 were projected by fitting a linear regression based on the current trend, which was identified by a Joinpoint model.FindingsIn the whole population, only chronic respiratory diseases showed a significant decline (AAPC: − 6.5%, p < 0.05), while only cancer showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 1.3%, p < 0.05); taken together, NCD4 showed a significant increase (AAPC: + 0.6%, p < 0.05). In the subpopulations, while males showed a significant increase in NCD4 (AAPC: + 1.5%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: + 1.7%, p < 0.05), cancer (AAPC: + 1.8%, p < 0.05), and diabetes mellitus (AAPC: + 4.2%, p < 0.05), females showed a significant decline in NCD4 (AAPC: − 1.2%, p < 0.05), cardiovascular diseases (AAPC: − 1.8%, p < 0.05), diabetes mellitus (AAPC: − 2.1%, p < 0.05), but showed a mild increase in cancer (AAPC: + 0.5%, p > 0.05). A comparative analysis of the projected PMRs for 2030 with the 2015 levels revealed that only chronic respiratory diseases are expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4, apart from in the urban male subpopulation.ConclusionExcept for chronic respiratory diseases, NCD4 cannot be expected to achieve the SDG target 3.4 in the whole population of Liaoning Province. Under these circumstances, special attention should be paid to reducing the risks of cancer and providing preventative interventions for men.
Highlights
Background and aimAccording to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015
Four noncommunicable diseases (NCD4) may be responsible for deaths in various age groups, but those occurring in patients between 30 and 70 years are defined as premature mortality
Remarkable gaps were noted in Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, but not diabetes mellitus (DM), which showed some overlap between the genders; Chronic respiratory disease (CRD) showed a continuous decline in both genders
Summary
According to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4, premature mortality from four non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus, collectively referred to as NCD4) should achieve a minimum decline of 33% in 2030 relative to 2015. In a study that assessed the progress of Healthy China 2030 from 1990 through 2015, the premature mortality rate showed a 2.0% decline per year on average; all females but only males in 11 out of 33 provinces would be expected to achieve the Chinese target [4]. Despite a series of native publications that were focused on this topic [4, 6,7,8], far, there have been few reports on the status and progress of northeast China towards these health goals
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