Current food web models cannot explain the overall topological structure of observed food webs

Abstract

Topological food webs illustrating “who eats whom” in different systems exhibit similar, non‐random, structures suggesting that general rules govern food web structure. Current food web models correctly predict many measures of food web topology from knowledge of species richness and connectance (fraction of possible predator–prey links that actually occur), together with assumptions about the ecological rules governing “who eats whom”. However, current measures are relatively insensitive to small changes in topology. Improvement of, and discrimination among, current models requires development of new measures of food web structure. Here I examine whether current food web models (cascade, niche, and nested hierarchy models, plus a random null model) can predict a new measure of food web structure, structural stability. Structural stability complements other measures of food web topology because it is sensitive to changes in topology that other measures often miss. The cascade and null models respectively over‐ and underpredict structural stability for a set of 17 high‐quality food webs. While the niche and nested hierarchy models provide unbiased predictions on average, their 95% confidence intervals frequently fail to include the observed data. Observed structural stabilities for all models are overdispersed compared to model predictions, and predicted and observed structural stabilities are uncorrelated, indicating that important sources of variation in structural stability are not captured by the models. Crucially, poor model performance arises because observed variation in structural stability is unrelated to variation in species richness and connectance. In contrast, almost all other measures of food web topology vary with species richness and connectance in natural webs. No model that takes species richness and connectance as the only input parameters can reproduce observed variation in structural stability. Further progress in predicting and explaining food web topology will require fundamentally new models based on different input parameters.