Current and projected hydroclimatic changes in the Baltic and Arctic sea basins in the territories of Belarus and Russia

Abstract

The article presents an assessment of current changes in air temperature, precipitation, snow and river runoff in the Baltic and Arctic Seas basins in the territories of Belarus and Russia. It is shown that the observed positive air temperature trends during the winter season are associated with the sea level pressure distribution in the North Atlantic and NAO indices. In summer, the temperature growth is correlated strongly with the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation. Changes in the precipitation regime are synchronized with an increase in the sea level pressure in the baroclinic active zones of the Atlantic Ocean, which led to the precipitation increase in Europe since the second half of the 20th century. Interdecadal precipitation fluctuations in the study region are associated with the dynamics of the circumpolar vortex and Arctic oscillation (AO) indices. In winter, a precipitation increase is observed in the negative AO phase and is caused by an increase in the frequency of southern cyclones. In summer, when the AO phase is negative, the cyclonic activity decreases, and the precipitation growth is associated with convective processes in the atmosphere. Snow precipitation and snow water equivalent are decreasing during recent decades due the air temperature significant growth. That led to the spring floods height decreasing in the region. In the next 30 years, a decrease in the winter air temperature in the Baltic Sea basin and its increase in the Arctic Sea are expected. In summer, the air temperature increase will slow down on the descending AMO branch in the coming decades. In the precipitation regime, the growth of seasonal and daily total precipitation is expected.