Abstract
Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4–6 °C for the period 2071–2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088–2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.
Highlights
There has been a growing interest in the relationship between temperature in indoor and outdoor settings, especially in the context of climate change and projected increases in extreme temperature events [1]
Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally [8,9,10,11]
A large percentage of sampled households were below the upper-bound poverty line (i.e., ZAR 1077) as defined by Statistics South Africa in the year 2015 [54] (Table 2)
Summary
There has been a growing interest in the relationship between temperature in indoor and outdoor settings, especially in the context of climate change and projected increases in extreme temperature events [1]. The exposure of individuals to temperature extremes is affected by outdoor temperature, and by temperature experienced in the indoor environment. Indoor conditions represent an important microenvironment because of the amount of time people spend at home; they provide a suitable representation of temperature exposure experienced by dwelling occupants [2]. World leaders who attended the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21) agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 ◦ C compared to industrial era conditions, and to aim for a target of 1.5 ◦ C [12]. On average, global average temperatures are projected to exceed these temperature goals, with increases of between 1.4 ◦ C and
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