Abstract

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

Highlights

  • Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) is a rare and small carnivore, endemic to the forests and paramo of the Andes of Colombia and Ecuador (Balaguera-Reina et al 2009)

  • Results obtained for the current potential distribution in Ecuador and Colombia reveal that areas with the highest habitat suitability are highlands (Fig. 2)

  • The highest habitat suitability (0.9-1) for N. olivacea in Ecuador is located in the province of Morona Santiago, Morona canton, Parishes: Río Blanco, Zuña and Alshi, followed by the province of Pichincha, Quito canton, Parishes: Píntag, Manuel Conejo Astorga and Lloa; and the province of Santo Domingo de los Tsáchilas shows a relatively high probability in Santo Domingo canton, Alluriquín parish

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Summary

Introduction

Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) is a rare and small carnivore, endemic to the forests and paramo of the Andes of Colombia and Ecuador (Balaguera-Reina et al 2009). Its altitudinal range varies from 1,300 to 3,862 m of elevation in Ecuador (Medrano-Vizcaíno 2018), but it gets up to 4,260 m in Colombia (Balaguera-Reina et al 2009, Helgen et al 2009). Most of the records have been collected near Bogotá (Guzmán-Lenis 2004) This species maintains a wide distribution range due to its tolerance to habitat alterations (González-Maya et al 2016), it has been negatively affected by deforestation, hunting, agricultural expansion, social conflicts and attacks by domestic animals (Balaguera-Reina et al 2009, Zapata-Ríos and Branch 2018). According to the UICN, it is considered near threatened (NT) and it is estimated that only 36% of its distribution area is located in forests remnants (Helgen et al 2009)

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