Current and Future Potential Distribution of Wild Strawberry Species in the Biodiversity Hotspot of Yunnan Province, China

Junyu Yang,Jiangyun Tong,Zhenrong Zhang,Xuemei Shen,Shijie Wei,Daifa Su,Xiaolong Cui,Zhiwei Luo,Shanyan Chen,Arslan Jamil

doi:10.3390/agronomy10070959

Abstract

Based on 243 current valid distribution records for six wild strawberry species in China and data on 20 environmental variables, the geographical distributions of and potentially suitable areas for the wild strawberry species in Yunnan Province (China) under the current climate scenario were explored using the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, and major environmental variables affecting their geographical distributions were evaluated. In addition, the spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of the suitable areas for the six wild strawberry species in Yunnan Province in the 2050s and 2070s under the two climate models of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were predicted. Under the current climate scenario, the six wild strawberry species have suitable areas in Yunnan Province, which were mainly distributed in the high-altitude and low-temperature regions in the northwest and northeast, such as Diqing and Zhaotong. In addition, the average size of the highly suitable area for diploid wild strawberry species was greater than that for tetraploid species. Under the future climate scenarios, the average size of the highly suitable area for diploid species showed a tendency to expand, while that of tetraploid species showed a tendency to shrink. Altitude was a critical variable affecting the distribution of tetraploid species. Under the two future climate models of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, the suitable areas for wild strawberry species shifted to the regions of high latitude, high altitude, and low temperature. In addition, the average distance in the shift of the suitable area for tetraploid strawberry species was greater than that for the suitable area for diploid strawberry species. The above results provide valuable information for the management and protection of the germplasm resources of Fragaria.

Highlights

Climate is a primary factor determining the geographical and spatial ranges of species, and climate warming has an impact on the natural environment and species distributions [1]
Our results indicated that a total of eight, eight, five, six, seven, and six environmental variables under the current scenario were screened for the predictive analysis of F. nilgerrensis, F. vesca, F. pentaphylla, F. orientalis, F. moupinensis, and F. gracilis, respectively (Tables S3 and S4)
All predictive models and results in this study have high credibility and accuracy, and further results can scientifically reveal the impacts of climate change on the distributions of the six wild strawberry species in Yunnan Province, China

Summary

Introduction

Climate is a primary factor determining the geographical and spatial ranges of species, and climate warming has an impact on the natural environment and species distributions [1]. With an area of 394,000 km (4.1% of China’s total area), Yunnan Province is a biodiversity hotspot in China and around the world. It is known as China’s “Treasure House” of biological diversity. As a result of its particular geographical location, landform features and diverse climatic conditions, Yunnan Province, known as the “Kingdom of Plants” and “Kingdom of Animals”, ranks first in terms of biological diversity and the proportion of endemic species in China [5]. The biological diversity in Yunnan Province, similar to what is occurring in the rest of the world, is facing significant impacts from global environmental change and has become one of the most sensitive regions to future climate change [6,7].

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