Current and future estimates for the fire frequency and the fire rotation period in the main woodland types of peninsular Spain: a case-study approach

Antonio Vázquez,José R Quintana,José M Climent,Luis Casais

doi:10.5424/fs/2015242-06454

Antonio Vázquez, José R Quintana + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.5424/fs/2015242-06454

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Abstract

Aim of study. Fire regimes are frequently dynamic and change as a function of the interactions between the three main fire drivers: fuels, ignitions and climatic conditions. We characterized the recent period (1974-2005) and performed estimates for the future fire regimeArea of study. We have considered five pine and another four woodland types by means of the analyses of 100 reference areas in peninsular Spain.Material and methods. The estimates of the expected alterations in fire frequency and the fire rotation period were based on models previously developed for the climatic scenarios SRES A2 and B2.Main results. The results point to the large variability in fire frequency and rotation periods between the woodland types as defined, and also among the reference areas delimited for each of them. Fire frequencies will increase for all woodland types while very relevant shortenings of the fire rotation periods are expected. For the 32 yr period analysed, rotation periods longer than 500 yr were obtained in 54% of the reference areas while this percentage would decrease to 31% in the B2 and to 29% in the A2 climatic scenario. In the most affected woodland type, P. pinaster, from a median rotation period of 83 yr it would decrease to 26 yr in the B2 and to 20 yr in the A2 climatic scenario.Research highlights. We conclude that the predicted increases in fire activity will have adverse effects on some of the main Spanish woodland types due to the expected future disruptions in the fire regime. Keywords: Forest fires; fire regime; fire frequency; fire rotation period; climatic change.Abbreviations used: SRES: Special Report on Emissions Scenarios; IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; RA: Reference Areas.

Highlights

Wildland fires are a global ecological disturbance process with complex spatial and temporal distributions
These patterns could be due to several factors such as the strong effect of human activities (Moreno et al, 1998; Pausas et al, 2008; Moreira et al, 2011; Brotons et al, 2013) and to gradients of forest productivity which are very relevant in fuel accumulation and in fire activity (Vázquez et al, 2006) that agree with the global fire-productivity relationship suggested recently by Pausas & Ribeiro (2013)
Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra registered a low fire incidence in most of the reference areas (RA) followed by P. pinea and P. halepensis with a generally medium incidence and a large incidence in the RA selected for P. pinaster

Summary

Introduction

Wildland fires are a global ecological disturbance process with complex spatial and temporal distributions. Riaño et al, 2007) and we are able to propose a hypothesis about global activity patterns (Krawchuk & Moritz, 2011; Pausas & Ribeiro, 2013). Wildland fire activity can be characterized by it fire regime, that is the type of fire history registered in a defined space and time. Fire regimes result from the interactions between climate, fuels and ignitions as their three main drivers Fire regime is determined by a large number of factors such as the presence of ignition sources, the topography, prevention and extinction efficiency, existence of climatic conditions which favour the spread of fire and the amount, type and arrangement of fuels at several spatial scales (Rothermel, 1983).

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