Current and future distribution of Metcalfa pruinosa (Say) (Hemiptera: Flatidae) in Korea: Reasoning of fast spreading

Abstract

Metcalfa pruinosa (Say) has rapidly established and spread through Korea since its first reported occurrence in 2009, causing serious economic damage to various agricultural crops. Several statistical modeling methods and MaxEnt software were used with spatio-temporal occurrence information in Korea, in order to verify fast expansion triggered by human-mediated factor, and predict potential distribution and its determinants of M. pruinosa for efficient management. Results showed that the estimated spread rate and pattern of M. pruinosa in Korea were significantly different from a continuous spreading pattern. In early spread phase in 2013, traffic volume, one of human mediated factors, was the most important environmental factor. Traffic volume of the relative pre-occupied habitat in 2013 was also significantly ( P < .05) higher than the one lately occupied in 2017. However, the mean temperature in the warmest quarter became the most important environmental factor in current invasion phase of 2017. According to these results, traffic volume was strongly proposed as a main reason of rapid spreading of M. pruinosa in Korea, causing long-distance dispersal in stratified spread mechanism. The predicted current and future distribution of M. pruinosa can be used to prepare management plans and increase management efficiency for M. pruinosa in Korea. • Spread pattern of M. pruinosa in Korea was not continuous spread. • Traffic factor is a main reason of early rapid spreading of M. pruinosa in Korea. • M. pruinosa distribution was related to temperature during adult and egg stages. • The current and future distribution maps of M. pruinosa in Korea were generated.