Abstract
Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide and the Peruvian National Map of Degraded Areas indicates that 13.78% (177,592.82 km2) of the country’s territory is degraded. Forest plantations can be a restoration strategy, while conserving economically important species affected by climate change and providing forestry material for markets. This study modelled the species distribution under current conditions and climate change scenarios of five Timber Forest Species (TFS) in the Amazonas Department, northeastern Peru. Modelling was conducted with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) using 26 environmental variables. Of the total distribution under current conditions of Cedrelinga cateniformis, Ceiba pentandra, Apuleia leiocarpa, Cariniana decandra and Cedrela montana, 34.64% (2985.51 km2), 37.96% (2155.86 km2), 35.34% (2132.57 km2), 33.30% (1848.51 km2), and 35.81% (6125.44 km2), respectively, correspond to degraded areas and, therefore, there is restoration potential with these species. By 2050 and 2070, all TFS are projected to change their distribution compared to their current ranges, regardless of whether it will be an expansion and/or a contraction. Consequently, this methodology is intended to guide the economic and ecological success of forest plantations in reducing areas degraded by deforestation or similar activities.
Highlights
Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide, in developing countries [1]
We have obtained a total of 45 species distribution models, including one under current conditions and eight under climate change scenarios for each Timber Forest Species (TFS)
By 2050 and 2070, all five TFS are projected to change their areas of distribution compared to current conditions
Summary
Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide, in developing countries [1]. Peru comprises part of the Amazon basin; with approximately 57.4% (739,730 km2 ) of the territory with forest cover, it is the second largest Amazonian holder in South America and ranks in the top ten countries with the largest global forest area [2]. 22,848.67 km of forest between 2001 and 2018, the three of 15 Amazonian departments most affected in the country are San Martin (4365.10 km2 ), Loreto (4302.80 km2 ) and Ucayali (3844.70 km2 ) [3]. The Amazonas Department ranks number eight with 882.79 km of lost forest. Peru’s timber production comes mainly from natural forests [5], where falling is highly selective and is one of the causes of small-scale migratory agriculture, which takes advantage of penetrating forest roads to bring progress [6]
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