Current and future conflicts between eucalypt plantations and high biodiversity areas in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

The Iberian Peninsula (Iberia) is a key region for preserving many endangered habitats and species. High biodiversity areas, such as Natura 2000 sites and High Nature Value farmlands, are widespread in Iberia. However, the massive, uncontrolled proliferation of exotic Eucalyptus globulus plantations in some regions may jeopardise conservation goals. It is thus important to assess the potential conflicts of E. globulus plantations with high biodiversity areas, both in current and future times. We applied species distribution models to project the current and future potential ranges of E. globulus plantations in Iberia, considering two representative concentration (of greenhouse gas) pathways (RCP): RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Projections include a range of environmental suitability for E. globulus plantations. These projections were assessed in relation to the distribution of the Natura 2000 sites and High Nature Value farmlands. Conflicts were rated based on the combination between the level of suitability for plantations and the level of biodiversity importance in a grid of cells covering Iberia.Eucalyptus globulus plantations are currently widespread inside the Natura 2000 network of the Iberian Peninsula. In a few Natura 2000 sites, E. globulus cover increased after their designation as a protected area. Overall, plantations expanded greatly around Natura 2000 sites. The species distribution model showed that the current potential range of E. globulus plantations extends over 18% of Iberia, mostly along the Atlantic shore, being mainly determined by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The future projections show a northward contraction of the suitable range, especially under the RCP8.5 (warmer scenario). However, the suitability for E. globulus plantations will improve in most of the receding range, leading to an aggravation of the potential conflicts with those high biodiversity areas. This study helps identify priority areas to prevent further impacts of E. globulus plantations on Iberian biodiversity.