Current and future characteristics of land use based on intensity analysis and PLUS model : a case study of Foshan city, China

Abstract

Land use change drives urban pattern change. The development of urbanization will result in the diminution of ecological land and the extinction of ecological defense. Foshan is a highly typical city. Identifying the characteristics of dynamic land use changes and predicting the future land use pattern are crucial components of land use planning. Land use transfer matrix and intensity analysis model were utilized in this study. Three representative years, 2010, 2015, and 2020, were used to analyze the interval, category, and transition level characteristics for Foshan City. Then, based on the PLUS model and the Markov model, multiple scenarios for the land use of Foshan City in 2030 were developed. The results indicate the following: (i) According to the interval level intensity analysis, the general trend of land use intensity between 2010 and 2020 is first rapid and then gradual. At the category level, construction land demonstrates stable activity with increasing intensity, whereas dike-ponds demonstrate continuous activity with decreasing intensity. (ii) From 2020 to 2030, there is a slowing in the intensity of site conversion. The natural development scenario is more in line with the city's development. (iii) In simulations of future urban scenarios, the dike-pond has a decreasing trend over the scenario. At the future transition level, three possible land use conversion systems exist: "forestland—dike-pond," "water—dike-pond," and "dike-pond—construction land." With this study, Foshan City can serve as a case study for sustainable development and rational planning.Article HighlightsLand use change components, quantity, exchange and shift were estimated.The largest net change occurred in 2010–2015 due to human activities.Spatial reallocation were characterized by exchange and shift.The largest exchange occurred in 2010–2020 due to the dike-pond eroded.The dike-pond has a decreasing trend over the simulated scenario.