Currency Risk and Country Risk in International Banking

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar‐denominated loans to foreign firms and governments. We conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation, deviations from purchasing power parity, and the effect of these deviations on the firm's and the nation's dollar‐equivalent cash flows. Country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation's terms of trade and the government's willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes.