Currency dependence of corporate credit spreads

Abstract

Many pricing and risk management models need credit spread curves as an input. In the corporate bond market the estimation of credit spread curves is not trivial. Most issuers have only too few bonds outstanding and frequently these bonds are denominated in different currencies. To ensure a sufficient number of bonds for the estimation procedure in many cases bonds in different currencies have to be used which implies that the estimation procedure has to take into account potential currency effects. Under the hypothesis of zero correlation between the default variables and the exchange rates deflated by the relevant money market accounts we show using a rather general pricing framework that credit spreads are expected to be equal across different currencies. This paper analyses these effects and presents a new model which allows to estimate a credit spread curve for a single issuer with bonds in different currencies. This new model is based on the multi-curve estimation approach which allows a parsimonious joint estimation of a risk free term structure and the credit spread curve of the issuer. We reject the hypothesis of zero correlation between credit and exchange rate risk and present empirical evidence that there are significant differences of issuer specific credit spreads across different currencies in a representative sample of international corporate bonds. Moreover, this implies that dollar related credit spread curves cannot be used without special care for pricing defaultable claims denominated in other currencies.