Cure of cancer for seven cancer sites in the Flemish Region

Abstract

Cumulative relative survival curves for many cancers reach a plateau several years after diagnosis, indicating that the cancer survivor group has reached "statistical" cure. Parametric mixture cure model analysis on grouped relative survival curves provide an interesting way to determine the proportion of statistically cured cases and the mean survival time of the fatal cases in particular for population-based cancer registries. Based on the relative survival data from the Belgian Cancer Registry, parametric cure models were applied to seven cancer sites (cervix, colon, corpus uteri, skin melanoma, pancreas, stomach and oesophagus), at the Flemish Regional level for the incidence period 1999-2011. Statistical cure was observed for the examined cancer sites except for oesophageal cancer. The estimated cured proportion ranged from 5.9% [5.7, 6.1] for pancreatic cancer to 80.8% [80.5, 81.2] for skin melanoma. Cure results were further stratified by gender or age group. Stratified cured proportions were higher for females compared to males in colon cancer, stomach cancer, pancreas cancer and skin melanoma, which can mainly be attributed to differences in stage and age distribution between both sexes. This study demonstrates the applicability of cure rate models for the selected cancer sites after 14 years of follow-up and presents the first population-based results on the cure of cancer in Belgium.