Abstract
IntroductionThe Framingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors. Our study examined whether use of a cumulative social risk score in addition to the FRS improves prediction of CVD among South Korean adults.MethodsWe used nationally representative data on 19,147 adults aged 19 or older from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2013–2016. We computed a cumulative social risk score (range, 0–3) based on 3 social risk factors: low household income, low level of education, and single-living status. CVD outcomes were stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina. Weighted logistic regression examined the associations between cumulative social risk, FRS, and CVD. McFadden pseudo-R 2 and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) assessed model performance. We conducted mediation analyses to quantify the association between cumulative social risk score and CVD outcomes that is not mediated by the FRS.ResultsA unit increase in social risk was associated with 89.4% higher risk of stroke diagnosis, controlling for the FRS (P < .001). The FRS explained 8.0% of stroke diagnosis (R 2) with fair discrimination (AUC = 0.728), and adding the cumulative social risk score enhanced R 2 and AUC by 2.4% and 0.039. In the association between cumulative social risk and stroke, the proportion not mediated by the FRS was 65% (P < .001). We observed similar trends in myocardial infarction and angina, such that an increase in social risk was associated with increased relative risk of disease and improved disease diagnosis, and a large proportion of the association was not mediated by the FRS.ConclusionControlling for the FRS, cumulative social risks predicted stroke, myocardial infarction, and angina among adults in South Korea. Future research is needed to examine non-FRS mediators between cumulative social risk and CVD.
Highlights
Introduction TheFramingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors
The Framingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors
Our study examined whether use of a cumulative social risk score in addition to the FRS improves prediction of CVD among South Korean adults
Summary
Framingham risk score (FRS) is widely used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD), but it neglects to account for social risk factors. Our study examined whether use of a cumulative social risk score in addition to the FRS improves prediction of CVD among South Korean adults. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been the leading cause of death in the past 20 years [1]. The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors’ affiliated institutions. Www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2020/19_0382.htm Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
