Abstract
Choosing outcome measures for HIV prevention intervention studies is difficult because of the multiplicity of behavioral and epidemiologic factors that affect HIV transmission. In attempts to address some of these factors, summary risk indices have been proposed as outcome measures for some intervention studies. These summary risk indices have suffered from a number of methodological difficulties (e.g., some indices are not expressed in meaningful units). We present six criteria that can be used to judge the soundness of summary risk indices. Further, we illustrate that the central equation from a (Bernoullian) mathematical model of HIV transmission can be used as a summary risk index, and that it meets these six criteria.
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