Culture and gambling fallacies.

Li-Jun Ji,Kayla Mcgeorge,Zhiyong Zhang,Ye Li,Albert Lee

doi:10.1186/s40064-015-1290-2

Li-Jun Ji, Kayla Mcgeorge + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1186/s40064-015-1290-2

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Abstract

Euro-Canadians and Chinese typically hold different theories about change; Euro-Canadians often engage in linear thinking whereas Chinese often engage in non-linear thinking. The present research investigated the effects of culture-specific theories of change in two related gambling fallacies: the gambler’s fallacy (GF; the belief that one is due for a win after a run of losses) and the hot-hand fallacy (HHF; the belief that one’s winning streak is likely to continue). In Study 1, participants predicted the outcome of a coin toss following a sequence of tosses. Study 2 involved predicting and betting on the outcome of a basketball player’s shot following a sequence of shots. In Study 1, Asians (mainly Chinese) were significantly more likely than Euro-Canadians to believe that they would win (correctly predict the coin toss) after a series of losses (a non-linear thinking pattern), suggesting greater susceptibility to the gambler’s fallacy. In Study 2, Euro-Canadians were more likely than Chinese to predict outcomes consistent with a basketball player’s streaks (a linear thinking pattern), suggesting greater susceptibility to the hot hand fallacy. By illustrating the role of cultural differences in cognition, these findings contribute to our understanding of why certain cultural groups, such as Chinese, are more susceptible to gambling.

Highlights

Euro-Canadians and Chinese typically hold different theories about change; Euro-Canadians often engage in lin‐ ear thinking whereas Chinese often engage in non-linear thinking
The high incidence of gambling reflects its status as a common pastime for North Americans and suggests that gambling behavior is an important area of research
We examined whether the gambler’s fallacy could occur after a winning or losing streak and whether there were cultural differences in the gambler’s fallacy

Summary

Introduction

Euro-Canadians and Chinese typically hold different theories about change; Euro-Canadians often engage in lin‐ ear thinking whereas Chinese often engage in non-linear thinking. A meta-analysis of 25 studies that examined cross-cultural incidence of gambling behavior found that the problem gambling rate in Chinese communities across the world range from 2.5 to 4.0 % on average (Loo et al 2008). This trend is consistent with findings that identifying as a minority may increase one’s chance of developing problem gambling behavior (Abbott and Volberg 1994)

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