Culex pipiens distribution in Tunisia: Identification of suitable areas through Random Forest and MaxEnt approaches

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Tunisia has experienced several West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks since 1997. Yet, there is limited information on the spatial distribution of the main WNV mosquito vector Culex pipiens suitability at the national level. In the present study, our aim was to predict and evaluate the potential and current distribution of Cx. pipiens in Tunisia. To this end, two species distribution models were used, i.e. MaxEnt and Random Forest. Occurrence records for Cx. pipiens were obtained from adult and larvae sampled in Tunisia from 2014 to 2017. Climatic and human factors were used as predictors to model the Cx. pipiens geographical distribution. Mean decrease accuracy and mean decrease Gini indices were calculated to evaluate the importance of the impact of different environmental and human variables on the probability distribution of Cx. pipiens. Suitable habitats were mainly distributed next to oases, in the north and eastern part of the country. The most important predictor was the population density in both models. The study found out that the governorates of Monastir, Nabeul, Manouba, Ariana, Bizerte, Gabes, Medenine and Kairouan are at highest epidemic risk. The potential distribution of Cx. pipiens coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in humans in Tunisia. Our study has the potential for driving control effort in the fight against West Nile vector in Tunisia.