Abstract
Significance The 57-year-old heir apparent -- Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel -- was born after the 1959 revolution and represents a symbolic generational shift. However, Castro’s continued leadership of the Communist Party should minimise the uncertainty of leadership change and maintain a level of political continuity. Regime stalwarts have blocked Castro’s once ambitious reform agenda, leaving his successor little room for manoeuvre. Impacts Increased foreign investment is unlikely to compensate for the stagnating economy and the restrictions on private business. The economic downturn will increasingly generate social tensions and pressure for reform. Tougher US migration restrictions remove a pressure valve for social discontent in Cuba, exacerbating the risk that tensions will build.
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