Abstract
Cuba has become a major force in Caribbean tourism. If or when US travel restrictions are lifted, it might quickly become the dominant player, siphoning off American tourists from competitors. This paper presents an overview of tourism in Cuba and the Caribbean before and during Castro and discusses factors that might condition a post-Castro transition. Further it reviews tourism products Cuba might introduce into the Caribbean market. Based on historical trends and interviews, the study projects tourism growth in Cuba after a five-year transition period and simulates the quantitative diversion of US tourists from competing destinations. Concern among regional neighbors about negative impacts to their tourism activities appears justified.
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