CUACE/Dust – an integrated system of observation and modeling systems for operational dust forecasting in Asia

S L Gong,X Y Zhang

doi:10.5194/acp-8-2333-2008

S L Gong, X Y Zhang

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-2333-2008

Copy DOI

Abstract

Abstract. An integrated sand and dust storm (SDS) forecasting system – CUACE/Dust (Chinese Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment for Dust) has been developed, which consists of a comprehensive dust aerosol module with emission, dry/wet depositions and other atmospheric dynamic processes, and a data assimilation system (DAS) using observational data from the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) ground dust monitoring network and retrieved dust information from a Chinese geostationary satellite – FY-2C. This is the first time that a combination of surface network observations and satellite retrievals of the dust aerosol has been successfully used in the real time operational forecasts in East Asia through a DAS. During its application for the operational SDS forecasts in East Asia for spring 2006, this system captured the major 31 SDS episodes observed by both surface and satellite observations. Analysis shows that the seasonal mean threat score (TS) for 0–24 h forecast over the East Asia in spring 2006 increased from 0.22 to 0.31 by using the DAS, a 41% enhancement. The time series of the forecasted dust concentrations for a number of representative stations for the whole spring 2006 were also evaluated against the surface PM10 monitoring data, showing a very good agreement in terms of the SDS timing and magnitudes near source regions where dust aerosols dominate. This is a summary paper for a special issue of ACP featuring the development and results of the forecasting system.

Highlights

Sand and dust storms (SDS) have caused devastating damages to properties and human health every spring in East Asia
There are a number of SDS forecasting systems operational at various organizations including the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model – DREAM (Nickovic et al, 2001) providing 72-h forecasts for the Mediterranean region, the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System – NAAPS (Christensen, 1997) providing the global SDS forecasts, Chemical weather Forecasting model System – CFORS (Uno et al, 2003) and the Asian Dust Aerosol Model – ADAM (Park and In, 2003) providing the SDS forecasts for Asia
One of the reasons for the difference was the difficulty in the identification of source regions accurately and the lack of near-real time observational data for the SDS to validate the dust emission parameterizations in those models

Summary

Introduction

Sand and dust storms (SDS) have caused devastating damages to properties and human health every spring in East Asia. Because of its economical and social impacts, it is critical to understand the source strength, transport and deposition of soil dust and to establish the SDS forecasting and early warning (EW) capacity in the world to reduce its impact. Within this context, an ambitious plan to establish a global SDS forecasting and early warning system is being organized by WMO (World Meteorological Organization) to improve the global forecasting ability for SDS around the world.

Forecasting Results

Synoptic features of 2006 SDS

Challenges in future SDS forecasts