CT-based radiomics nomogram for the preoperative prediction of microsatellite instability and clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer: a multicentre study

Abstract

To develop and validate a computed tomography (CT)-based radiomics nomogram for preoperative prediction of microsatellite instability (MSI) status and clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This retrospective study enrolled 497 CRC patients from three centres. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was utilised for feature selection and constructing the radiomics signature. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify significant clinical variables. The radiomics nomogram was constructed by integrating the radiomics signature and the identified clinical variables. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to investigate the prognostic value of the nomogram. The radiomics signature comprised 10 radiomics features associated with MSI status. The nomogram, integrating the radiomics signature and independent predictors (age, location, and thickness), demonstrated favourable calibration and discrimination, achieving areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) of 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.83-0.95), 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79-0.95), 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.96), and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.78-0.93) in the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and two external validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram exhibited superior performance compared to the clinical model (p<0.05). Additionally, survival analysis demonstrated that the nomogram successfully stratified stage II CRC patients based on prognosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.357, p=0.022). The radiomics nomogram demonstrated promising performance in predicting MSI status and stratifying the prognosis of patients with CRC.