Abstract
Propagation of a lava flow is governed by slope topography, magma rheology, heat exchange with the atmosphere and the underlying terrain, and the rate of the eruption. Highly viscous crust is formed due to cooling and solidification of the uppermost layer of the flow. We consider here two numerical model problems for lava flows, both based on the fundamental physics of a hot fluid flow: a model problem, where thermal conditions (e.g. temperature and heat flow) at the lava surface are unknown a priori (a direct model problem), and a model problem, where the lava surface conditions are known and determined from observations(an inverse model problem). In both models, the lava viscosity depends on temperature and the volume fraction of crystals. By way of solving the direct model problem, we perform a parametric study of steady state lava flows to investigate the influence of the heat flux, viscosity, and effusion rate on the lava crust development. Numerical experiments show that a lava crust becomes thicker in the case of the nonlinear heat transfer compared to the case of a linear heat flow at the interface of lava with the atmosphere. Also, the crust thickens at lower lava effusion rates, while higher rates result in a rapid lava advection, slower cooling, and development of a thinner crust. Moreover, a lava crust becomes thicker with a higher coefficient of conductive heat transfer, or a higher lava viscosity, or the growth of effective emissivity of the lava surface. By way of solving the inverse model problem, we use an assimilation technique (that is, a method for an optimal combination of a numerical model of lava flows with observations) to propagate the temperature and heat flow, inferred from measurements at the interface between lava and the atmosphere, into the lava flow interior and to analyse the evolving lava crust. Results of thermal data assimilation illustrate that the physical parameters of lava flows, including the thickness of it crust, can be recovered from measured surface thermal data well enough at least for slow effusion rates.
Highlights
A flow of lava is a common volcanic feature on the Earth’s surface
We develop direct and inverse models of lava flows introducing the fol− lowing complexities: (i) the lava viscosity depending on temperature and the volume fraction of crystals; (ii) nonlinear heat transfer mechanism at the surface of lava with the atmosphere, including the radiant and convective parts of the total heat flux; (iii) varying flow conditions at the lava surface; and (iv) lava flow on a real surface topography
The crust is defined in the numerical mod− els as the area, where the lava viscosity is greater than η0/2
Summary
A flow of lava is a common volcanic feature on the Earth’s surface. A lava flow can destroy villages or se− riously damage cities as happened in and around Catania, Sicily, during the eruption of Etna volcano in 1669 [Branca et al, 2013]. Lavas have been used as a construction material for centuries and have been a source of nutrients in agriculture, lava flows remain a threat to human activity [Poland et al, 2016]. Several regions in the world are prone to lava flow hazard including in Hawaii/USA [Patrick et al, 2017], Iceland [Pedersen et al, 2018], Italy [Corsaro et al, 2009], Réunion/France [e.g., Sol− dati et al, 2018], Kamchatka/Russia [Belousov and Be− lousova, 2018], and some other regions of the active or historic effusive volcanism [e.g., Chevrelet al., 2016; Dietterich et al, 2018]
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