Crude Oil Price Shocks and European Stock Markets during the COVID-19 Period

Abstract

This paper investigates the interrelations between stock returns and crude oil prices for European oil-importing/exporting countries. A vector autoregression (VAR) model is applied to estimate the significance of stock market responses to changes in oil prices during the pandemic period 2019–2021. A Granger causality test is applied to find the direction and the intensity of the relation between crude oil and the indices of the European stock markets. The findings of this paper hold with or without the COVID-19 pandemic episode and reveal the interaction between the European stock markets and the crude oil prices. The results indicate that in steady periods, before the COVID-19 outbreak and after the announcement of vaccinations, there is no interdependence between crude oil and stock prices, whereas in high volatility periods, the causality from stock markets to oil prices increases and both oil-exporting and -importing countries are equally influenced. These findings have implications both for investors and fund managers.