Abstract
Crude oil is one of the most strategic commodities and plays a critical role on the world’s economy and macroeconomics factors, such as inflation, recession, economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and etc. In 2010, the crude oil’s share from the world’s fossil fuel consumption was 38%, share of coal was 35% and share of natural gas was 27% from the total fossil fuel consumption. Therefore, crude oil is the largest demanded fossil fuel in the world, and its fluctuations and determinant factors are one of the most encouraging subjects for energy researchers and economists. In this study we perform a historical analysis on crude oil price movements and determinant factors behind of that during 1940-2011. This analysis can be used by oil price forecasters.
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