Abstract

In this paper, we provide a novel approach to distinguish livable urban densities from crowded cities and describe how this distinction has proved to be critical in predicting COVID-19 contagion hotspots in cities in low- and middle-income country. Urban population density—considered as the ratio of population to land area, without reference to floor space consumption or other measures of livability—can have large drawbacks. To address this drawback and distinguish between density and crowding, it is important to adjust for measures of floor space as well as open space and neighborhood amenities. We use a dataset on building heights, representative of cities worldwide, to measure densities based on floor area consumption per person as well as apply this measure to develop a COVID-19 hotspot predictive tool to help city leaders prioritize civic and medical resources during the pandemic. We conclude by outlining priority interventions that could enable city leaders and local governments to transform crowded cities into livable places.

Highlights

  • Crowded Cities: New MethodologyToday, over 4 billion people around the world—more than half the global population—live in cities

  • Evidence from developed countries shows that urbanization and the growth of dense cities is a source of dynamism that can lead to enhanced productivity and economic growth

  • A recent survey of empirical work, largely focusing on developed countries, highlights the benefits of urban density: Ahlfeldt and Pietrostefani [1] report that increasing urban density is associated with premiums in wages (4 percent), patent activity (19 percent), consumption variety value (12 percent), the preservation of green spaces (23 percent), and the use of non-car transport modes (7 percent), as well as with reductions in average vehicle mileage (−8.5 percent), energy consumption (−7 percent), pollution concentration (−8 percent), crime (−8.5 percent), and unit costs of providing local public services (−14.4 percent)

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Summary

Introduction

Over 4 billion people around the world—more than half the global population—. live in cities. Henderson, and Venables [4] characterize cities in low- and lower-middle-income countries as crowded and not economically dense, compared to cities in more developed parts of the world. Over 35 percent of urban residents in developing country cities live in slums; in Sub-Saharan Africa, the share is much larger at 60 percent [5]. To help city leaders prioritize resources for potential hotspots or places with the highest exposure and contagion risk, a team at the World Bank has developed a methodology to predict exposure and vulnerability hotspots using globally sourced data. This methodology has been applied to over 50 cities in low- and lower-middle-income countries.

Untangling Crowding and Density
Methodology
Application of the Methodology
A Worldwhere
Share of the citycity population living in COVID-19 hotspots in selected
Looking
Financing
Findings
Concluding Remarks
Full Text
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