CrowdAtlas: Estimating Crowd Distribution within the Urban Rail Transit System

Abstract

While urban rail transit systems are playing an increasingly important role in meeting the transportation demands of people, precise awareness of how the human crowd is distributed within such a system is highly necessary, which serves a range of important applications including emergency response, transit recommendation, and commercial valuation. Most rail transit systems are closed systems where once entered the passengers are free to move around all stations and are difficult to track. In this article, we attempt to estimate the crowd distribution based only on the tap-in and tap-out records of all the rail riders. Specifically, we study Singapore MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) as a vehicle and leverage EZ-Link transit card records to estimate the crowd distribution. Guided by a key observation that the passenger inflows and arrival flows at different MRT stations and time are spatio-temporally correlated due to behavioral consistency of MRT riders, we design and implement a machine learning-based solution, CrowdAtlas, that captures MRT riders’ transition probabilities among stations and across time, and based on that accurately estimates the crowd distribution within the MRT system. Our comprehensive performance evaluations with both trace-driven studies and real-world experiments in MRT disruption cases demonstrate the effectiveness of CrowdAtlas.