Crowd model calibration at strategic, tactical, and operational levels: Full-spectrum sensitivity analyses show bottleneck parameters are most critical, followed by exit-choice-changing parameters

Abstract

ABSTRACT Crowd motion simulation requires specification of a range of parameters, each reflecting certain aspects of agent behavior. But what parameters matter the most? Are they all equally important? The question is important given that available data and resources for parameter calibration are limited, and priorities often need to be made. Here, for the first time, a full-spectrum sensitivity analysis of crowd model parameters is reported. It is shown that estimates of simulated evacuation time are, by far, most dependent on the value of locomotion/operational parameters, especially those that determine discharge rate at bottlenecks. The next most critical set of parameters are those that influence change of direction choices. If a crowd simulation model fails to reproduce bottleneck flows accurately, efforts to refine other modeling layers will be in vain. Similarly, if the model fails to represent exit choice adaptation/changing accurately, efforts to refine the exit choice model will be fruitless.