Crowd-in Effect of Highway Capital on Private Investment in the United States

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of public transportation infrastructure investment on private investment and whether public infrastructure investment tends to “crowd in” or “crowd out” private investment. “Crowding in” refers to situations where public investment encourages private sector investment, whereas “crowding out” refers to situations where public investment discourages private sector investment. This analysis applies the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology for an empirical study. Using national-level annual data from 1947 to 2017 in the United States, estimation results suggest that public investment in highways tends to crowd in private investment after an initial and temporary crowding-out effect. Most of the positive impacts on private investment accrue within 3 years after the initial public investment. The incremental impact diminishes almost completely after roughly 10 years. Alternative model specifications and sensitivity analyses further confirm the robustness of the model specification by yielding consistent and positive crowd-in effects within the first 3 to 5 years after the public investment.