Abstract
Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be ‘coherent’, that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources.This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecast, a special selection of research in this field.
Highlights
Introduction and backgroundThe tourism sector is of vital importance to Australia.1 In 2016-2017 tourism contributed $55.3 billion to Australia’s economy, accounting for 3.2% of Australian GDP
Preprint submitted to Annals of Tourism Research an integral part of Australian society
Following the methodology proposed by Hyndman and Khandakar (2008) for each time series we identify the appropriate AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) components
Summary
Introduction and backgroundThe tourism sector is of vital importance to Australia. In 2016-2017 tourism contributed $55.3 billion to Australia’s economy, accounting for 3.2% of Australian GDP. In 2016-2017 tourism contributed $55.3 billion to Australia’s economy, accounting for 3.2% of Australian GDP It is the sixth largest sector in Australia directly employing 598,200 persons, accounting for 4.9% of the national workforce. Domestic consumers dispersed outside capital cities, much more than international arrivals, visiting regional Australia for 63% of their trips. This is extremely positive for the support and economic development of smaller regional areas, among them Indigenous communities in remote areas, Preprint submitted to Annals of Tourism Research an integral part of Australian society (see Mahadevan, 2018; Abascal et al, 2016, and references therein for studies related to Australian indigenous tourism)
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