Crossing Borders and Expanding Modal Shift Measures: Effects on Mode Choice and Emissions from Freight Transport in the Nordics

Daniel Ruben Pinchasik,Martin Jerksjö,Inger Beate Hovi,Stein Erik Grønland,Erik Fridell,Christian Svendsen Mjøsund

doi:10.3390/su12030894

Daniel Ruben Pinchasik, Martin Jerksjö + Show 4 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su12030894

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Abstract

Considering the underachievement on modal shift and environmental objectives for freight transport, scholars and policy makers recurrently ask how more road freight can be shifted to rail and waterborne transport. The current study simulates transport and modal distribution effects for several scenarios in which modal shift policy measures are strengthened, expanded, combined, and harmonized across borders in the Nordics. Found transport effects were then used in an environmental model to assess implications for energy use and emissions of CO2,eq, NOx, and particulate matter, gaining insights into which policy measures are more effective or complement each other, and whether international harmonization might increase effectiveness, and modal shift. From our simulations, a Norwegian ecobonus scheme for rail yields larger modal shift away from road than a similar ecobonus for sea transport. Facilitating longer freight trains yields more modal shift but has high policy costs. Effects of harmonizing policies across Nordic countries vary but can be strengthened by combining different measures. However, even for scenarios with strong policy measures, reductions in CO2,eq emissions do not exceed 3.6% in 2030 while sometimes increasing local air pollution. Modal shift policy should therefore not exclusively be regarded as environmental strategy, although it may contribute to other policy objectives.

Highlights

Inducing modal shift from road to rail and waterborne freight is a political objective in many countries [1], often motivated by ambitious emission reduction, sustainability, and traffic safety targets
In most European countries, modal shift ambitions are driven by the European Commission’s Transport White Paper [2], while in Norway, modal shift has been a transport-political objective in all National Transport Plans (NTPs) since 2002, state budgets since 2005, and several government agreements [3]
Because CO2 emissions amongst others depend on origin, destination, and geographical proximity to intermodal terminals, estimation of environmental effects is not straightforward [5], and not all of the above methods are suitable to study environmental effects of modal shift

Summary

Introduction

Inducing modal shift from road to rail and waterborne freight is a political objective in many countries [1], often motivated by ambitious emission reduction, sustainability, and traffic safety targets. In most European countries, modal shift ambitions are driven by the European Commission’s Transport White Paper [2], while in Norway, modal shift has been a transport-political objective in all National Transport Plans (NTPs) since 2002, state budgets since 2005, and several government agreements [3]. A first example is a decades-long trend of sectors starting to organize themselves differently; less nationally and more internationally, country-overspanning, or Pan-European This trend has caused an increase in international transport, often favoring road transport, as many production and consumption centers can only be reached by road [9,10,11]

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