Abstract
Cross-impact analysis relies on decision makers to provide marginal probability estimates of interdependent events. Generally, these have to be revised in order to ensure overall system coherency. This paper describes cross-impact analysis experimentation in which a Monte Carlo based approach and a difference equation approach, respectively, were used to revise these marginal probabilities. The objective of the study was to determine the consequences of such revisions on the expected impact rankings of these events. A cross-impact analysis system was developed and used to conduct the experiments. The experiments show that the impact ranking of interdependent events may indeed depend on the technique used for revising event marginal probabilities. Moreover, the Monte Carlo technique generates a world view closer to the one of the decision makers, while the world view generated by the difference equation technique differs from that of the decision makers.
Highlights
The government of the Republic of South Africa, like other governments across the world, has realised the importance of information technology for economic growth
This study considers ways of revising event marginal probabilities assumed to have been provided by decision makers, and determines the effect this revision has on the ranking of events in terms of expected impact
The objective of this paper was to determine the effect of marginal probabilities revision on the ranking of interdependent events
Summary
The government of the Republic of South Africa, like other governments across the world, has realised the importance of information technology for economic growth. A working group comprising of industry representatives, government agents and academy was inaugurated by the Minister of Communication to address, among others, an e-skills strategy that will bring about e-skills development. It is in the light of this initiative that the working group identified scenario analysis methods — a forecasting exercise — as a tool to support the formulation of an e-skills strategy for the country. The process of forecasting futures over a time horizon of say 10 to 15 years, requires decision makers and experts to have access to possible alternative futures from which to MI Mphahlele, OO Olugbara, SO Ojo & DG Kourie make choices. If the future could be determined by the past and present, futures research would have been a definite exercise
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