Abstract
The authors analysed the cross-correlation of photovoltaic (PV) output fluctuation for the actual PV output time series data in both the Tokyo area and the whole of Japan using the principal component analysis with the random matrix theory. Based on the obtained cross-correlation coefficients, the forecast error for PV output was estimated with/without considering the cross-correlations. Then the operation schedule of thermal plants is calculated to integrate PV output using the proposed unit commitment model with the estimated forecast error. The system-balancing cost of PV system was also estimated with or without demand response. Finally, validity of the concept of ‘local production for local consumption of renewable energy’ and alternative policy implications were discussed.
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