Cross-Combination Analyses of Random Forest Feature Selection and Decision Tree Model for Predicting Intraoperative Hypothermia in Total Joint Arthroplasty

Abstract

In total joint arthroplasty patients, intraoperative hypothermia (IOH) is associated with perioperative complications and an increased economic burden. Previous models have some limitations and mainly focus on regression modeling. Random forest (RF) algorithms and decision tree modeling are effective for eliminating irrelevant features and making predictions that aid in accelerating modeling and reducing application difficulty. We conducted this prospective observational study using convenience sampling and collected data from 327 total joint arthroplasty patients in a tertiary hospital from March 4, 2023 to September 11, 2023. Of those, 229 patients were assigned to the training and 98 to the testing sets. The Chi-square, Mann-Whitney U, and t-tests were used for baseline analyses. The feature variables selection used the RF algorithms, and the decision tree model was trained on 299 examples and validated on 98. The sensitivity, specificity, recall, F1 score, and area under the curve (AUC) were used to test the model's performance. The RF algorithms identified the preheating time, the volume of flushing fluids, the intraoperative infusion volume, the anesthesia time, the surgical time, and the core temperature after intubation as risk factors for IOH. The decision tree was grown to five levels with nine terminal nodes. The overall incidence of IOH was 42.13%. The sensitivity, specificity, recall, F1 score, and AUC were 0.651, 0.907, 0.916, 0.761, and 0.810, respectively. The model indicated strong internal consistency and predictive ability. The preheating time, the volume of flushing fluids, the intraoperative infusion volume, the anesthesia time, the surgical time, and the core temperature after intubation could accurately predict IOH in total joint arthroplasty patients. By monitoring these factors, the clinical staff could achieve early detection and intervention of IOH in total joint arthroplasty patients.