Cross-Entropy-Based Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using Subset Simulation and Minimum Computational Burden Criterion

Abstract

The cross-entropy (CE) method can accelerate power system reliability evaluation effectively. An importance sampling (IS) based iterative parameter updating algorithm is usually used in CE optimization. However, the efficiency in capturing the concerned samples for parameter updating may be unsatisfactory, especially for a system with intrinsic nature of rare failure events. Besides, the stopping criterion of this iterative algorithm is usually determined subjectively, incurring insufficient or excessive parameter updating and a resultant higher computational burden of the entire simulation. To address the above two problems, a CE method based on subset simulation and minimum computational burden criterion is proposed. In CE optimization, the subset simulation combined with M-H sampling is adopted as an alternative to IS to effectively improve the efficiency of capturing desired samples for parameter updating at each iteration. Moreover, a novel quantitative stopping criterion is presented in such a way that the computational burden for the entire simulation is estimated and compared after each parameter updating iteration, and the optimal parameters corresponding to the minimum computational burden can be determined. The computational performance of the proposed method is validated by comparing the proposed approach with existing methods under several numerical tests including a realistic power system.