Cross dynamics of oil-stock interactions: A redundant wavelet analysis

Abstract

The main aim of the present paper is to explore how the interactions between crude oil (CO) price changes and stock returns of five developed countries namely U.S.A, Canada, Germany, Japan and U.K., evolve simultaneously over time and frequency, in light of the conflicting evidence provided by much of recent studies on the sign and the direction of this relationship. To this end, we apply a more efficient wavelet tool, namely Haar à trous wavelet transform that helps circumvent the problems of the standard regression techniques and proves its effectiveness in encircling the real data features. In order to provide more credible conclusions, the wavelet variance, correlation and cross-correlation are implemented. In general, we extend the existing empirical works by providing more generalized and convincing results inherent to the stock-oil markets interactions which are usually reputed to be complicated. First, we find evidence that the wavelet variances of all the variables decrease with increasing scales. Second, from the analysis of the wavelet correlation, changes in CO and almost all the stock prices do not move together up to the intermediate scale, but since they abruptly shift their direction in unison. Third, results for the wavelet CCF at scales 2, 3 and/or 4 generally illustrate no transmission mechanism between CO and the stock market returns although we provide support for massive CO variations at these scales. In contrast, the CO-equity market relationships at higher scales become interconnected in a negative unidirectional pattern running from CO to stock market returns for only two oil importing countries but also Canada. For oil exporting countries, we have seen that while highly transient (scale 1) positive/negative causalities flowing from TSX stock market to CO changes are detected, highly persistent (scale 6) positive causality running from FTSE to the CO changes are rather found. Finally, the implications of the study's results vary depending on the oil – stock market linkages' sensitivity to the degree of improvement in energy efficiency of a given country, the degree of oil shock persistence, and to whether a country is oil importer or exporter (among other suggested factors).