Cropland expansion delays vegetation spring phenology according to satellite and in-situ observations

Abstract

The global climate change-induced advanced spring green-up dates (GUDs) of vegetation in the past decades have been well documented. However, anthropogenic effects on GUDs are still unclear, and the impacts of widespread cropland expansion on GUDs are rarely quantified. Here, we examine the differences in GUDs between agroecosystems and natural ecosystems using both satellite and in-situ observations across China’s ecosystems with a latitude ≥ 30°N and explore the potential effects of cropland expansion on vegetation spring phenology. We find that agroecosystems had significantly later GUDs than adjacent natural ecosystems according to satellite observations, with a delay of 22.26 ± 16.32 (Mean ± 1STD) days and 18.11 ± 11.75 days compared with woodland and grassland ecosystems, respectively. The later GUDs for agroecosystems is more distinct in the Northeast China Plain and Xinjiang Oasis region (>30 days), where land reclamation was remarkable. We also find a distinct delayed GUD trend (> 5 day/yr, p < 0.001) during 2001–2014 in a cropland expansion region in Xinjiang Province, which is much higher than the usual advancement of GUDs due to warming (usually ≤ 1 day/yr). In-situ and satellite observations of delayed GUDs agree better in agroecosystems than in forest and grassland ecosystems. More attention is needed to better understand the important role of cropland expansion in driving inter-annual change of vegetation spring phenology in addition to climate change, and integration of realistic crop green-up timing into climate models is also needed for accurate climate simulations.