Abstract
The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.
Highlights
Understanding the relationship between climate and crop yield helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural production systems to climate change
We will address the following two scientific questions: (1) how changes in crop spatial distribution pattern have regulated the response of crop yield to historical climate change over CONUS? and (2) How much uncertainty would be expected when projecting future climate change impacts if assuming fixed crop spatial distribution pattern? we focus our analyses on corn in the CONUS, which account for ca. 41% of the world’s total production, the analysis framework can be extended to other crops of interest
Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level (Fig. 2)
Summary
Understanding the relationship between climate and crop yield helps in enhancing resilience of agricultural production systems to climate change. Investigating the effects of crop spatial distribution pattern changes can help explore the implications of its adaption role in modulating historical climate impacts on yields, and understanding the uncertainty in projecting future crop yields. By comparing the estimates of climate impacts on crop yield with and without accounting for crop spatial distribution pattern changes, uncertainties by assuming constant crop spatial distribution pattern as in previous empirical studies can be explored. This helps understanding the increasing debates on whether warming will be a net gain or loss for agriculture regions like that of CNOUS by strengthening our understanding on this least understood uncertainty source.
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