Abstract
This study assesses the bioenergy generation potential of crop residues in Ukraine for the year 2030. Projections of agricultural development are made based on the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) and verified against available Agricultural Member State Modeling (AGMEMOD) results in regard to the six main crops cultivated in Ukraine (wheat, barley, corn, sunflower, rape and soya). Two agricultural development scenarios are assessed (traditional and innovative), facilitating the projection of future crop production volumes and yields for the selected crops. To improve precision in defining agro-environmental limitations (the share of crop residues necessary to be kept on the fields to maintain soil fertility for the continuous cultivation of crops), yield-dependent residue-to-product ratios (RPRs) were applied and the levels of available soil nutrients for regions of Ukraine (in regard to nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and humus) were estimated. The results reveal the economically feasible future bioenergy generation potential of crop residues in Ukraine, equaling 3.6 Mtoe in the traditional agricultural development scenario and 10.7 Mtoe in the innovative development scenario. The projections show that, within the latter scenario, wheat, corn and barley combined are expected to provide up to 81.3% of the bioenergy generation potential of crop residues.
Highlights
According to the national strategic documents from 2017 [1], renewable energy is expected to play a growing role in Ukraine, reaching 15.5 Mtoe or 17% of total energy supply by 2030, while the energy generated from biomass, biofuels and waste is projected to reach 8.8% or 8 Mtoe
Growth in the production of the main agricultural crops in Ukraine has been intensifying since the beginning of the 2000s, and is expected to continue in the decade
This will be accompanied by increasing amounts of available crop residues, which could potentially result in the intense development of energy generation from agricultural biomass
Summary
According to the national strategic documents from 2017 [1], renewable energy is expected to play a growing role in Ukraine, reaching 15.5 Mtoe or 17% of total energy supply by 2030, while the energy generated from biomass, biofuels and waste is projected to reach 8.8% or 8 Mtoe. This is deemed crucial for the diversification of energy sources and for increasing Ukraine’s independence from foreign energy suppliers, while having a favorable impact on climate change and the environment. Private investors (as the key actors in this in this transformation) must follow the indicative development implement available transformation) must follow the indicative development pathpath andand implement thetheavailable productiontechnologies
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