Abstract
Hungarian agriculture is expected to experience greater risks due to more variability in crop productivity due to increasing yearly average temperatures and extreme precipitation patterns. This study investigates the effect of changing climatic conditions on productivity, using a Hungarian sample of crop producers for a 12-year time period. Our empirical analysis employs True Fixed Effects frontier models of Farm Accountancy Data Network data that are merged with specific meteorological data representatively maintained for seeding, vegetative, and generative periods for cereals, oil seed and protein crops, along with soil quality and usage-related data. Estimations indicate that climate variables have significant impacts on technical efficiency. In addition, calculation suggest that an increase in temperature during seeding and vegetative periods, combined with higher precipitation levels in May and June, will reduce crop farmers’ production frontier. Estimations explain the variance, while the technical efficiency (TE) scores emphasize the impact of the difference in soil quality and its water absorption capacity.
Highlights
Several papers investigate the effects of climate change on European agriculture [1,2,3,4,5,6], and their conclusions suggest a range of different outcomes
Some of the reviewed results suggest that negative association exists between climatic effects and dairy farm output [7,9], others find that average temperature has a positive impact on dairy production [10,11] while average temperature in winter time has no significant impact [10]
Based on data about Hungarian plant producers from 2003 to 2013, the research described constructed SFA and true” fixed-effects- (TFE) models to estimate the technical efficiencies of the sample
Summary
Several papers investigate the effects of climate change on European agriculture [1,2,3,4,5,6], and their conclusions suggest a range of different outcomes. Most research concludes that climate variability is an important factor to negatively influence crop production [2,6]. The literature highlights that based on applied method the results can be substantially different [8]. This paper extends this literature to crop production in Europe, to Hungary
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