Abstract
Background: Agriculture is the most sensitive sector to climate variability. In rain-fed ecosystems, rainfall is the single most essential component in crop planning. Crop planning using rainfall variability and probability analysis helps to improve the productivity. Methods: A study was taken for crop planning in Madurai district by analyzing the rainfall variability and probability analysis using 40 years (1982-2021) of weekly, monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall data. Result: The mean annual rainfall in Madurai district was 925.5 mm was spread over 74 rainy days with 24.7 per cent of coefficient of variation thereby the rainfall is dependable over years with decreasing trend. The probability analysis showed that receiving 20 mm rainfall per week was for 12 weeks (32 to 45th week) except 35 and 37th week which is helpful for sowing and planting. On the other hand, highest mean monthly rainfall was received in October (176 mm) followed by September (137.4 mm). Seasonal analysis resulted that Southwest monsoon had high rainfall quantity with mean value of 397.7 mm. Rice is the major crop cultivated in this region should be replaced by maize, green gram, black gram, cowpea, sorghum, ragi and minor millets which can withstand drought conditions with less crop duration.
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