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Abstract
Decision support systems are key for yield improvement in modern agriculture. Crop models are decision support tools for crop management to increase crop yield and reduce production risks. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and an Agricultural System simulator (APSIM), intercomparisons were done to evaluate their performance for wheat simulation. Two-year field experimental data were used for model parameterization. The first year was used for calibration and the second-year data were used for model evaluation and intercomparison. Calibrated models were then evaluated with 155 farmers’ fields surveyed for data in rice-wheat cropping systems. Both models simulated crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter and yield with high goodness of fit to the measured data during both years of evaluation. DSSAT better predicted yield compared to APSIM with a goodness of fit of 64% and 37% during evaluation of 155 farmers’ data. Comparison of individual farmer’s yields showed that the model simulated wheat yield with percent differences (PDs) of −25% to 17% and −26% to 40%, Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) of 436 and 592 kg ha−1 with reasonable d-statistics of 0.87 and 0.72 for DSSAT and APSIM, respectively. Both models were used successfully as decision support system tools for crop improvement under vulnerable environments.
Highlights
Decision support systems are important in modern agriculture
Decision support systems will be helpful for farmers to address various challenges emerging due to climate change, which is among the major threats to wheat production in Pakistan
Performance of CERES-Wheat was good in case of maturity day’s prediction, mean percent difference (MPD) is zero with all evaluated treatments having a mean Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) of 0.80 days while, in Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM), a slightly higher percent differences (PDs) (2.8%) was recorded with a mean RMSE of 1.94 days (Table S2). These results showed that both crop models can predict phenology reasonably good at 110 kg N ha−1
Summary
Decision support systems are important in modern agriculture. Decision support systems are very important for judicious use of available farm resources for raising farm production within a limited area. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is the most important cereal crop in the world and is a staple food of about one third of the world’s population. It is the principal source of carbohydrates for humans. Wheat demand is continuously increasing to feed the growing population in many countries such as Pakistan. Decision support systems will be helpful for farmers to address various challenges emerging due to climate change, which is among the major threats to wheat production in Pakistan. Models are used for nitrogen use efficiency, as it is the most limiting factor for crop production under semiarid regions, which are generally nitrogen deficient [5,6,7,8,9]
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