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Abstract
Expansion of cropland in tropical countries is one of the principal causes of biodiversity loss, and threatens to undermine progress towards meeting the Aichi Biodiversity Targets. To understand this threat better, we analysed data on crop distribution and expansion in 128 tropical countries, assessed changes in area of the main crops and mapped overlaps between conservation priorities and cultivation potential. Rice was the single crop grown over the largest area, especially in tropical forest biomes. Cropland in tropical countries expanded by c. 48,000 km2 per year from 1999–2008. The countries which added the greatest area of new cropland were Nigeria, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Sudan and Brazil. Soybeans and maize are the crops which expanded most in absolute area. Other crops with large increases included rice, sorghum, oil palm, beans, sugar cane, cow peas, wheat and cassava. Areas of high cultivation potential—while bearing in mind that political and socio-economic conditions can be as influential as biophysical ones—may be vulnerable to conversion in the future. These include some priority areas for biodiversity conservation in tropical countries (e.g., Frontier Forests and High Biodiversity Wilderness Areas), which have previously been identified as having ‘low vulnerability’, in particular in central Africa and northern Australia. There are also many other smaller areas which are important for biodiversity and which have high cultivation potential (e.g., in the fringes of the Amazon basin, in the Paraguayan Chaco, and in the savanna woodlands of the Sahel and East Africa). We highlight the urgent need for more effective sustainability standards and policies addressing both production and consumption of tropical commodities, including robust land-use planning in agricultural frontiers, establishment of new protected areas or REDD+ projects in places agriculture has not yet reached, and reduction or elimination of incentives for land-demanding bioenergy feedstocks.
Highlights
Cropland expansion as a threat to biodiversity No human activity has altered the face of the planet more than agriculture [1,2,3]
There have been few attempts to summarise and synthesise information on global patterns of crop expansion or cultivation potential in relation to priority areas for biodiversity conservation, or to carry out systematic assessments to identify which crops might pose the greatest threat to biodiversity [10,12,13]
The rate of global cropland expansion is slowing, there is little room for conservationists to be complacent: new croplands have in recent decades come largely at the expense of natural habitats, tropical forests [17,18]
Summary
Cropland expansion as a threat to biodiversity No human activity has altered the face of the planet more than agriculture [1,2,3]. Despite its modest contribution to global food production, meeting 20% of production increase from new cropland by 2030 would require conversion to crop production of an area equivalent to South Africa Most of this land is likely to be in sub-Saharan Africa and South America [16]. The rate of global cropland expansion is slowing, there is little room for conservationists to be complacent: new croplands have in recent decades come largely at the expense of natural habitats, tropical forests [17,18]. New markets such as those for liquid biofuels are creating new demand for agricultural products [19]. As long as agricultural expansion continues, it seems likely to remain a major driver of biodiversity loss
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