Crop calendar optimization for climate change adaptation in rice-based multiple cropping systems of India and Bangladesh

Abstract

Adjusting crop calendars may present an effective adaptation measure to avoid crop yield loss and reduce water use in a changing climate. In order to better understand potentials and limitations of adjusting crop calendars for climate change adaptation of tropical multi-cropping systems with short fallow periods, we used a regionally calibrated Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agronomic model to estimate annual caloric yield and blue water requirement (BWR) of irrigated double-rice and rice-wheat cropping systems in India and Bangladesh. We adjusted crop calendars by (a) single-objective optimization to maximize annual caloric yield and (b) multi-objective optimization to minimize BWR under current and future climate scenarios, focusing on climatic drivers of optimal growing seasons. While the short time intervals between harvest of kharif crops and (trans-)planting of rabi crops limit the space for planting date shift in the study area, our results indicate that crop calendar adjustment has great potential to reverse yield loss induced by temperature rise and decrease BWR by utilizing monsoon precipitation. The study indicates a trend towards earlier planting of rabi wheat to mitigate heat stress during the reproductive stage. Moreover, earlier planting of kharif rice can help to utilize monsoon precipitation, avoid cold stress of kharif rice during anthesis, and allow for early wheat sowing during the historic period. By the 2080s, the increase of heat stress in summer and the decrease of cold stress in winter seems to allow more flexibility for late rice in kharif season, but a conflict between later planting for yield improvement and earlier planting for blue water saving is expected in kharif rice on the Indo-Gangetic plain of India and Bangladesh. Therefore, the trade-off between yield improvement and irrigation water use needs to be carefully considered to promote adaptive adjustment of crop calendars under climate change.