Abstract
Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Here, we investigate potential land-use opportunities arising from climate change for these sectors in Europe, and risks associated with the introduction and establishment of novel insect pests. Adopting a metaweb approach including all interaction links between 126 crops and forest tree species and 89 black-listed insect pest species, we show that the metawebs shift toward increased numbers of links and overlap of suitable area under climate change. Decomposing the metaweb across regions shows large saturation in southern Europe, while many novel interactions are expected for northern Europe. In light of the rising consumer awareness about human health and environmental impacts of food and wood production, the challenge will be to effectively exploit new opportunities to create diverse local agriculture and forestry while controlling pest species and reducing risks from pesticide use.
Highlights
Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies
We estimate a median increase in the area with suitable climate for crops from 1,925,265 km[2] in 2020 to 2,790,484 km[2] (+47%) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 2,487,919 km[2] (+27%) under the RCP4.5 scenario in 2100
The metaweb approach adopted in our study indicates a general increase in susceptibility of managed plants to pests under climate change owing to (1) an increase in the number of links between crops, forest trees and their pests, and (2) an increase in the area of climatic suitability overlap between pests and plants, which will challenge the benefit of climate change on agricultural diversification
Summary
Global changes pose both risks and opportunities to agriculture and forestry, and biological forecasts can inform future management strategies. Investigating future opportunities for crop cultivation and forest management under impending new threats from pest species is crucial for addressing risks and opportunities in the agricultural and forestry sectors associated with future climate change. In some areas of Europe climate change may enhance productivity and provide opportunities for diversifying agriculture and forestry[19,20] Like their natural counterparts, agricultural crop species and managed forest trees display an ecological niche of climatic preference[21], and the suitable area for growth is expected to shift with increasing temperatures[22]. The beneficial effects related to climate change are expected to provide new opportunities for crop and forest tree species in some European regions, but these gains might be counteracted by greater risks from climate extreme events[26] and pest pressure[28]. Anticipating the arrival of new pest species and understanding their interactions with crops and managed forests is crucial for designing management strategies for different invasion scenarios
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