Crop acreage planning for economy- resource- efficiency coordination: Grey information entropy based uncertain model

Abstract

Reasonable adjustment of crop acreage can improve the sustainability of agriculture in arid zones by promoting economic development, alleviating water scarcity, and improving resource utilization efficiency but meets the challenges of various decision-maker preferences and uncertainties. With the objectives of maximizing economic benefits, minimizing evapotranspiration, and maximizing water productivity and water production efficiency, this study developed a grey entropy based multi-objective fuzzy constraint interval programming model (GEMOFCIP) through incorporation of information entropy technology, fuzzy constraints and interval programming approaches within a general optimization framework. The model is capable of (1) generating the crop acreage management schemes through trading off the different development goals; (2) dealing with the structure and parameter uncertainties of the optimization model; (3) measuring the relative importance of multiple objectives by the introduction of information entropy with the insufficient decision-maker’s preference information. Taking the crop acreage planning problem in Liangzhou, northwest China as a case study, the model was solved under different water-saving and satisfaction degree scenarios. It turned out that, after optimization, the economic benefit, water productivity and water production efficiency have been significantly improved, while the total ET and the total irrigation water have been significantly compressed in the study area. The GEMOFCIP model is superior to the previous models in that it takes into account the randomness of the relative importance of system objective, the vagueness of system constraints and the fluctuations of system coefficients, which would make the model more reasonable, stable and objective. Optimal results can help manage crop pattern with the economy-resource-efficiency consideration and accelerate the healthy development of agriculture in arid zones.