Criticism of the short-term event analysis method in evaluating the effectiveness of mergers and acquisitions

Abstract

The article presents the analysis of the contemporary theoretical and empirical research devoted to evaluation of the effectiveness of mergers and acquisitions by means of short-term event analysis method, managers’ motivation in making decisions on the acquisition of other companies from the perspective of the timing of the expected effect; it adduces and systematizes the limitations of the cumulative abnormal returns (or CARs) method. The authors carry out scientific synthesis of the limitations of the method of capabilities of accurate prediction of the final results of transactions. In particular, the following problems of the CARs method have been identified: determining the date of the event, determining the event window, inconsistencies in research results, outflow of funds from purchasing companies during mergers and acquisitions, arbitrage trading strategies, the lack of long-term predictive value of the method of accumulated excessive profitability, efficient market hypotheses, overcharging of the purchasing company shares. The authors have made a conclusion about possible inaccuracy of the method if used to evaluate the effectiveness of mergers and acquisitions.