Critical thresholds for nonlinear responses of ecosystem water use efficiency to drought

Abstract

Climate change is expected to lead to greater variability in precipitation and drought in different regions. However, the responses of ecosystem carbon and water cycles (i.e., water use efficiency, WUE) to different levels of drought stress are not fully understood. Here, we examined the relationship between WUE and precipitation anomalies and identified the critical drought threshold (DrCW) above which WUE showed substantial decrease. The results revealed that 85.56 % of the study area had nonlinear WUE responses to drought stress; that is, the WUE decreased sustainably and steeply when the precipitation deficit exceeded the DrCW. DrCW indicates inflection points for changing ecosystem responses from relatively resistant to vulnerable to drought stress, thus providing an instructive early warning for intensifying suppressive impacts on vegetation growth. Additionally, DrCW varies across aridity gradients and among vegetation types. Based on the DrCW at the pixel level, the future eco-drought is projected to increase in >67 % of the study area under both the SSP2&RCP4.5 and SSP5&RCP8.5 scenarios by the end of the 21st century. Our study elucidates the response of the ecosystem function to drought and supports the development of accurate ecosystem adaptation policies for future drought stress.